{"id":15523,"date":"2024-07-17T06:58:09","date_gmt":"2024-07-17T06:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/policyresearchlab-new\/?p=15523"},"modified":"2024-07-17T07:17:09","modified_gmt":"2024-07-17T07:17:09","slug":"is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Modi Magic on the Wane?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Originally published<\/u><\/em><\/a> on 1st May, 2024<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political pundits say that the prime minister resorted to anti-Muslim hate speech instead of listing out his 10-year rule is indicative of the headwinds it is facing in the elections this time around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BJP supporters at an election rally. Photo: X (Twitter)\/@narendramodi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No sooner did the first round of the ongoing parliamentary elections end on April 19 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched into a diatribe, using vituperative language against India\u2019s minorities. This was surprising: instead of taking the opportunity to showcase the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government\u2019s achievements, the country\u2019s chief executive sought to target the Muslims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question that sprang up in the minds of political analysts was why Modi would take to Muslim bashing so early in the BJP\u2019s electoral campaign. It is not that Modi\u2019s acolytes refrained from the \u2018M\u2019 word \u2013 sometimes obliquely and more often unabashedly \u2013 in the 2019 electoral campaign. The PM joined in the last two phases, leaving political pundits to conclude that the \u201cworst was reserved for the last\u201d. The BJP posted a handsome figure of 303 in the 17th Lok Sabha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The PM\u2019s outburst this time was rightly and roundly criticised as \u201chate speech\u201d but the already discredited Election Commission allowed it to pass. No action was considered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only two rounds of this long and arduous campaign, especially in this blistering summer, are over. Five rounds remain. The campaign so far in general and the BJP\u2019s in particular has been dismal. This is not to say that the BJP\u2019s electoral juggernaut will not gather pace in the weeks to come. But something is amiss this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suddenly, across the BJP, there is no word of crossing the 400-seat threshold. A formidable target should ideally be matched by a robust campaign. A Modi wave, cresting on governance and development, should carry the BJP through. And yet the ruling party\u2019s \u2018star campaigner\u2019 had to resort to minority-bashing, as if that is the BJP\u2019s sine qua non.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A CSDS-Lokniti study on 150 songs on YouTube and 11 dailies has revealed that the BJP has emphasised PM Modi\u2019s charisma as the platform for campaigning for the 2024 elections. And yet, there are reports of a lacklustre Modi campaign. Unlike 2014 and 2019, voters this time are not getting carried away the putative Modi magic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CSDS-Lokniti\u2019s Yogendra Yadav is apprehensive that the Modi wave will not be able to sweep away livelihood issues (Missing Modi wave<\/a>). He said that this time the BJP will probably not secure as many seats as projected by the party leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A starker report from the Moradabad constituency in Uttar Pradesh showed that BJP cadres had to knock on the doors of Hindu voters to come out and vote, but to no avail (No wave, Voter apathy and a Dead candidate). The karyakartas admitted that they were able to persuade only a few.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, Muslim and Dalit voters, essentially Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party loyalists, were more enthusiastic. Burqa-clad women were walking confidently to the polling booths. Young men and women from the minority communities agreed that apparently BJP might return to power, but they wanted to dent the party\u2019s prospects as much as they could.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given this situation, one wonders whether \u2018400 ke paar\u2019 is even a near possibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2024 reported that they found almost 42% of their respondents agreed that the current government has done \u201cgood work\u2019 (Modi\u2019s Popularity Sustains<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The JAM trinity (Jan Dhan \u2013 AADHAR \u2013 Mudra Loan) has increased Narendra Modi\u2019s ratings manifold. The survey further reports that 18% of the respondents appeared to be satisfied with the welfare schemes. The Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) has supported and revitalised MSMEs in the last 9 years (Mudra Yojana<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unemployed Youth<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

There are 1.8 crore first-time voters this year (Young Voters<\/a>). There is little we hear about these come of age voters who will exercise their choice for the first time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ILO-IHR report shows that India has an appalling number of young individuals who are neither in school nor employed (Youth Unemployment<\/a>). Almost 83% of youth in India are unemployed report says. This issue is bypassed by the ruling party as incomplete data, since it does not account for people employed in the informal sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Young graduates, after 15 years of formal schooling, cannot choose to work in the informal sector. Hence, the number of unemployed youth are more in urban than rural areas (Unemployment in Indian States<\/a>). Respondents in the PRL survey, mostly from urban areas, pointed out unemployment as an important issue affecting their choice of candidate in the elections. However, no clear mandate is available from either side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although youth figures in GYAN formula, which is BJP\u2019s four-pronged strategy for 2024, there is no policies, schemes laid out other than a highly mundane slogan \u201cif you are 18, why are you waiting, come for voting\u201d<\/em>. Other than changing the regular campaign language from Hindi to English and organising Yuva Chaupal<\/em> there is nothing else on offer (GYAN<\/a>) .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inclusive Governance<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Sectarian policies followed by the government may affect the BJP campaign. The emphasis on prioritising issues such as inclusivity, harmony and efficient service delivery underscores evolving public expectations of governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2024 CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey reports that there is an overwhelming support for the idea that India belongs to all religions (Support for Religious Pluralism<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Around 17% of respondents in the PRL survey said that they prefer communal harmony and that would matter most while voting. Minority rights should be protected, and societal divisions reduced. The implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) prior to election might yield mixed results.A survey conducted by the students of Policy Research Lab (PRL) of O P Jindal Global University also found that 44% of the respondents mentioned better service delivery as the topmost issue for them in choosing the next government. Rather than doling out freebies, they would want to see an overall improvement of the basic amenities like water, health, sanitation, housing, roads, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institutions and Accountability<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The pre-poll survey by CSDS-Lokniti (CSDS-Lokniti Survey<\/a>) , shows that Narendra Modi does not suffer from any anti-incumbency in the Lok Sabha polls. However, one can sense \u2018negative sentiments\u2019 in the air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 2019, public trust in the electoral mechanisms has declined evidently. The data indicates a stark shift over the past five years, with trust in the ECI plummeting from more than half of respondents to less than three out of every ten. This erosion of trust could have several implications for the BJP\u2019s electoral prospects in this General Election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our current government has been critiqued for its centralized tendencies. Starting from GST to One State One Election, most of its policies have been directed towards curbing federal autonomy. A recent article highlights that there is little to almost no data on President sending back any bill to the parliament for reconsideration (No Data on President Returning Files<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition parties have constantly blamed the ruling government for misusing institutions like ED and CBI to intimidate others. The parade of opposition leaders going to jail kind of lends some credence to these allegations. This also reveals some form of fear and inconfidence in the ruling camp. Although our hon\u2019ble PM has been sloganeering \u2018is baar, char sau ke paar\u2019<\/em>, yet in action this confidence is missing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incoherent Opposition<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

UPA-2 government that was at the centre from 2004-2014 broke the trust of the people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lack-lustre government with underperforming ministers like Sharad Pawar, Anand Sharma, Mamata Banerjee, S.M. Krishna, UPA-I somehow managed to swim over to the second term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, the INDIA alliance has not been able to table any Common Minimum Programme. Recently, Rahul Gandhi spoke on the caste census, using the slogan \u2018Jitni Abadi Utna Haq\u2019<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there was no clarity on the objective of this exercise and how it might benefit the people. Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi took a jibe at it, saying that it will lead to majoritarianism if resources are decided based on population size (Caste-Census<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only 0.05 percent of respondents in the PRL survey said they might consider voting for INDIA candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not yet over<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Garnering 400 seats may be a long shot but repeating past outcomes is a possibility. The pro-reform stance of the present government has won many hearts but not all. Neither did Ram Mandir consecration create a pan-India sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the BJP has an edge with its welfarist policies and a weak opposition, rising unemployment and inflation will remain an irritant unless treated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Swetasree Ghosh Roy, Professor of Political Science, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, O.P. Jindal University. <\/em>Adrija Ganguly<\/u><\/em><\/a> and <\/em>Anagha S<\/u><\/em><\/a>, MA students from Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, O.P. Jindal University. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Originally published on 1st May, 2024 Political pundits say that the prime minister resorted to anti-Muslim hate speech instead of listing out his 10-year rule is indicative of the headwinds it is facing in the elections this time around. BJP supporters at an election rally. Photo: X (Twitter)\/@narendramodi. No sooner did the first round of the ongoing parliamentary elections end on April 19 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched into a diatribe, using vituperative language against India\u2019s minorities. This was surprising: instead of taking the opportunity to showcase the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government\u2019s achievements, the country\u2019s chief executive sought to target the Muslims. The question that sprang up in the minds of political analysts was why Modi would take to Muslim bashing so early in the BJP\u2019s electoral campaign. It is not that Modi\u2019s acolytes refrained from the \u2018M\u2019 word \u2013 sometimes obliquely and more often unabashedly \u2013 in the 2019 electoral campaign. The PM joined in the last two phases, leaving political pundits to conclude that the \u201cworst was reserved for the last\u201d. The BJP posted a handsome figure of 303 in the 17th Lok Sabha. The PM\u2019s outburst this time was rightly and roundly criticised as \u201chate speech\u201d but the already discredited Election Commission allowed it to pass. No action was considered. Only two rounds of this long and arduous campaign, especially in this blistering summer, are over. Five rounds remain. The campaign so far in general and the BJP\u2019s in particular has been dismal. This is not to say that the BJP\u2019s electoral juggernaut will not gather pace in the weeks to come. But something is amiss this time. Suddenly, across the BJP, there is no word of crossing the 400-seat threshold. A formidable target should ideally be matched by a robust campaign. A Modi wave, cresting on governance and development, should carry the BJP through. And yet the ruling party\u2019s \u2018star campaigner\u2019 had to resort to minority-bashing, as if that is the BJP\u2019s sine qua non. A CSDS-Lokniti study on 150 songs on YouTube and 11 dailies has revealed that the BJP has emphasised PM Modi\u2019s charisma as the platform for campaigning for the 2024 elections. And yet, there are reports of a lacklustre Modi campaign. Unlike 2014 and 2019, voters this time are not getting carried away the putative Modi magic. CSDS-Lokniti\u2019s Yogendra Yadav is apprehensive that the Modi wave will not be able to sweep away livelihood issues (Missing Modi wave). He said that this time the BJP will probably not secure as many seats as projected by the party leadership. A starker report from the Moradabad constituency in Uttar Pradesh showed that BJP cadres had to knock on the doors of Hindu voters to come out and vote, but to no avail (No wave, Voter apathy and a Dead candidate). The karyakartas admitted that they were able to persuade only a few. On the other hand, Muslim and Dalit voters, essentially Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party loyalists, were more enthusiastic. Burqa-clad women were walking confidently to the polling booths. Young men and women from the minority communities agreed that apparently BJP might return to power, but they wanted to dent the party\u2019s prospects as much as they could. Given this situation, one wonders whether \u2018400 ke paar\u2019 is even a near possibility. A CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2024 reported that they found almost 42% of their respondents agreed that the current government has done \u201cgood work\u2019 (Modi\u2019s Popularity Sustains). The JAM trinity (Jan Dhan \u2013 AADHAR \u2013 Mudra Loan) has increased Narendra Modi\u2019s ratings manifold. The survey further reports that 18% of the respondents appeared to be satisfied with the welfare schemes. The Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) has supported and revitalised MSMEs in the last 9 years (Mudra Yojana). Unemployed Youth There are 1.8 crore first-time voters this year (Young Voters). There is little we hear about these come of age voters who will exercise their choice for the first time. ILO-IHR report shows that India has an appalling number of young individuals who are neither in school nor employed (Youth Unemployment). Almost 83% of youth in India are unemployed report says. This issue is bypassed by the ruling party as incomplete data, since it does not account for people employed in the informal sector. Young graduates, after 15 years of formal schooling, cannot choose to work in the informal sector. Hence, the number of unemployed youth are more in urban than rural areas (Unemployment in Indian States). Respondents in the PRL survey, mostly from urban areas, pointed out unemployment as an important issue affecting their choice of candidate in the elections. However, no clear mandate is available from either side. Although youth figures in GYAN formula, which is BJP\u2019s four-pronged strategy for 2024, there is no policies, schemes laid out other than a highly mundane slogan \u201cif you are 18, why are you waiting, come for voting\u201d. Other than changing the regular campaign language from Hindi to English and organising Yuva Chaupal there is nothing else on offer (GYAN) . Inclusive Governance Sectarian policies followed by the government may affect the BJP campaign. The emphasis on prioritising issues such as inclusivity, harmony and efficient service delivery underscores evolving public expectations of governance. The 2024 CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey reports that there is an overwhelming support for the idea that India belongs to all religions (Support for Religious Pluralism). Around 17% of respondents in the PRL survey said that they prefer communal harmony and that would matter most while voting. Minority rights should be protected, and societal divisions reduced. The implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) prior to election might yield mixed results.A survey conducted by the students of Policy Research Lab (PRL) of O P Jindal Global University also found that 44% of the respondents mentioned better service delivery as the topmost issue for them in choosing the next government. Rather than doling out freebies, they would want to see an overall improvement of the basic amenities […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":15528,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[140,137],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs the Modi Magic on the Wane? | 91探花<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the Modi Magic on the Wane? | 91探花\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Originally published on 1st May, 2024 Political pundits say that the prime minister resorted to anti-Muslim hate speech instead of listing out his 10-year rule is indicative of the headwinds it is facing in the elections this time around. BJP supporters at an election rally. Photo: X (Twitter)\/@narendramodi. No sooner did the first round of the ongoing parliamentary elections end on April 19 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched into a diatribe, using vituperative language against India\u2019s minorities. This was surprising: instead of taking the opportunity to showcase the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government\u2019s achievements, the country\u2019s chief executive sought to target the Muslims. The question that sprang up in the minds of political analysts was why Modi would take to Muslim bashing so early in the BJP\u2019s electoral campaign. It is not that Modi\u2019s acolytes refrained from the \u2018M\u2019 word \u2013 sometimes obliquely and more often unabashedly \u2013 in the 2019 electoral campaign. The PM joined in the last two phases, leaving political pundits to conclude that the \u201cworst was reserved for the last\u201d. The BJP posted a handsome figure of 303 in the 17th Lok Sabha. The PM\u2019s outburst this time was rightly and roundly criticised as \u201chate speech\u201d but the already discredited Election Commission allowed it to pass. No action was considered. Only two rounds of this long and arduous campaign, especially in this blistering summer, are over. Five rounds remain. The campaign so far in general and the BJP\u2019s in particular has been dismal. This is not to say that the BJP\u2019s electoral juggernaut will not gather pace in the weeks to come. But something is amiss this time. Suddenly, across the BJP, there is no word of crossing the 400-seat threshold. A formidable target should ideally be matched by a robust campaign. A Modi wave, cresting on governance and development, should carry the BJP through. And yet the ruling party\u2019s \u2018star campaigner\u2019 had to resort to minority-bashing, as if that is the BJP\u2019s sine qua non. A CSDS-Lokniti study on 150 songs on YouTube and 11 dailies has revealed that the BJP has emphasised PM Modi\u2019s charisma as the platform for campaigning for the 2024 elections. And yet, there are reports of a lacklustre Modi campaign. Unlike 2014 and 2019, voters this time are not getting carried away the putative Modi magic. CSDS-Lokniti\u2019s Yogendra Yadav is apprehensive that the Modi wave will not be able to sweep away livelihood issues (Missing Modi wave). He said that this time the BJP will probably not secure as many seats as projected by the party leadership. A starker report from the Moradabad constituency in Uttar Pradesh showed that BJP cadres had to knock on the doors of Hindu voters to come out and vote, but to no avail (No wave, Voter apathy and a Dead candidate). The karyakartas admitted that they were able to persuade only a few. On the other hand, Muslim and Dalit voters, essentially Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party loyalists, were more enthusiastic. Burqa-clad women were walking confidently to the polling booths. Young men and women from the minority communities agreed that apparently BJP might return to power, but they wanted to dent the party\u2019s prospects as much as they could. Given this situation, one wonders whether \u2018400 ke paar\u2019 is even a near possibility. A CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2024 reported that they found almost 42% of their respondents agreed that the current government has done \u201cgood work\u2019 (Modi\u2019s Popularity Sustains). The JAM trinity (Jan Dhan \u2013 AADHAR \u2013 Mudra Loan) has increased Narendra Modi\u2019s ratings manifold. The survey further reports that 18% of the respondents appeared to be satisfied with the welfare schemes. The Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) has supported and revitalised MSMEs in the last 9 years (Mudra Yojana). Unemployed Youth There are 1.8 crore first-time voters this year (Young Voters). There is little we hear about these come of age voters who will exercise their choice for the first time. ILO-IHR report shows that India has an appalling number of young individuals who are neither in school nor employed (Youth Unemployment). Almost 83% of youth in India are unemployed report says. This issue is bypassed by the ruling party as incomplete data, since it does not account for people employed in the informal sector. Young graduates, after 15 years of formal schooling, cannot choose to work in the informal sector. Hence, the number of unemployed youth are more in urban than rural areas (Unemployment in Indian States). Respondents in the PRL survey, mostly from urban areas, pointed out unemployment as an important issue affecting their choice of candidate in the elections. However, no clear mandate is available from either side. Although youth figures in GYAN formula, which is BJP\u2019s four-pronged strategy for 2024, there is no policies, schemes laid out other than a highly mundane slogan \u201cif you are 18, why are you waiting, come for voting\u201d. Other than changing the regular campaign language from Hindi to English and organising Yuva Chaupal there is nothing else on offer (GYAN) . Inclusive Governance Sectarian policies followed by the government may affect the BJP campaign. The emphasis on prioritising issues such as inclusivity, harmony and efficient service delivery underscores evolving public expectations of governance. The 2024 CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey reports that there is an overwhelming support for the idea that India belongs to all religions (Support for Religious Pluralism). Around 17% of respondents in the PRL survey said that they prefer communal harmony and that would matter most while voting. Minority rights should be protected, and societal divisions reduced. The implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) prior to election might yield mixed results.A survey conducted by the students of Policy Research Lab (PRL) of O P Jindal Global University also found that 44% of the respondents mentioned better service delivery as the topmost issue for them in choosing the next government. Rather than doling out freebies, they would want to see an overall improvement of the basic amenities […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"91探花\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-17T06:58:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-17T07:17:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Is-the-Modi-Magic-on-the-Wane.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Vinay\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Vinay\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/\",\"name\":\"Is the Modi Magic on the Wane? 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| 91探花","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Is the Modi Magic on the Wane? | 91探花","og_description":"Originally published on 1st May, 2024 Political pundits say that the prime minister resorted to anti-Muslim hate speech instead of listing out his 10-year rule is indicative of the headwinds it is facing in the elections this time around. BJP supporters at an election rally. Photo: X (Twitter)\/@narendramodi. No sooner did the first round of the ongoing parliamentary elections end on April 19 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched into a diatribe, using vituperative language against India\u2019s minorities. This was surprising: instead of taking the opportunity to showcase the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government\u2019s achievements, the country\u2019s chief executive sought to target the Muslims. The question that sprang up in the minds of political analysts was why Modi would take to Muslim bashing so early in the BJP\u2019s electoral campaign. It is not that Modi\u2019s acolytes refrained from the \u2018M\u2019 word \u2013 sometimes obliquely and more often unabashedly \u2013 in the 2019 electoral campaign. The PM joined in the last two phases, leaving political pundits to conclude that the \u201cworst was reserved for the last\u201d. The BJP posted a handsome figure of 303 in the 17th Lok Sabha. The PM\u2019s outburst this time was rightly and roundly criticised as \u201chate speech\u201d but the already discredited Election Commission allowed it to pass. No action was considered. Only two rounds of this long and arduous campaign, especially in this blistering summer, are over. Five rounds remain. The campaign so far in general and the BJP\u2019s in particular has been dismal. This is not to say that the BJP\u2019s electoral juggernaut will not gather pace in the weeks to come. But something is amiss this time. Suddenly, across the BJP, there is no word of crossing the 400-seat threshold. A formidable target should ideally be matched by a robust campaign. A Modi wave, cresting on governance and development, should carry the BJP through. And yet the ruling party\u2019s \u2018star campaigner\u2019 had to resort to minority-bashing, as if that is the BJP\u2019s sine qua non. A CSDS-Lokniti study on 150 songs on YouTube and 11 dailies has revealed that the BJP has emphasised PM Modi\u2019s charisma as the platform for campaigning for the 2024 elections. And yet, there are reports of a lacklustre Modi campaign. Unlike 2014 and 2019, voters this time are not getting carried away the putative Modi magic. CSDS-Lokniti\u2019s Yogendra Yadav is apprehensive that the Modi wave will not be able to sweep away livelihood issues (Missing Modi wave). He said that this time the BJP will probably not secure as many seats as projected by the party leadership. A starker report from the Moradabad constituency in Uttar Pradesh showed that BJP cadres had to knock on the doors of Hindu voters to come out and vote, but to no avail (No wave, Voter apathy and a Dead candidate). The karyakartas admitted that they were able to persuade only a few. On the other hand, Muslim and Dalit voters, essentially Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party loyalists, were more enthusiastic. Burqa-clad women were walking confidently to the polling booths. Young men and women from the minority communities agreed that apparently BJP might return to power, but they wanted to dent the party\u2019s prospects as much as they could. Given this situation, one wonders whether \u2018400 ke paar\u2019 is even a near possibility. A CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2024 reported that they found almost 42% of their respondents agreed that the current government has done \u201cgood work\u2019 (Modi\u2019s Popularity Sustains). The JAM trinity (Jan Dhan \u2013 AADHAR \u2013 Mudra Loan) has increased Narendra Modi\u2019s ratings manifold. The survey further reports that 18% of the respondents appeared to be satisfied with the welfare schemes. The Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) has supported and revitalised MSMEs in the last 9 years (Mudra Yojana). Unemployed Youth There are 1.8 crore first-time voters this year (Young Voters). There is little we hear about these come of age voters who will exercise their choice for the first time. ILO-IHR report shows that India has an appalling number of young individuals who are neither in school nor employed (Youth Unemployment). Almost 83% of youth in India are unemployed report says. This issue is bypassed by the ruling party as incomplete data, since it does not account for people employed in the informal sector. Young graduates, after 15 years of formal schooling, cannot choose to work in the informal sector. Hence, the number of unemployed youth are more in urban than rural areas (Unemployment in Indian States). Respondents in the PRL survey, mostly from urban areas, pointed out unemployment as an important issue affecting their choice of candidate in the elections. However, no clear mandate is available from either side. Although youth figures in GYAN formula, which is BJP\u2019s four-pronged strategy for 2024, there is no policies, schemes laid out other than a highly mundane slogan \u201cif you are 18, why are you waiting, come for voting\u201d. Other than changing the regular campaign language from Hindi to English and organising Yuva Chaupal there is nothing else on offer (GYAN) . Inclusive Governance Sectarian policies followed by the government may affect the BJP campaign. The emphasis on prioritising issues such as inclusivity, harmony and efficient service delivery underscores evolving public expectations of governance. The 2024 CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey reports that there is an overwhelming support for the idea that India belongs to all religions (Support for Religious Pluralism). Around 17% of respondents in the PRL survey said that they prefer communal harmony and that would matter most while voting. Minority rights should be protected, and societal divisions reduced. The implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) prior to election might yield mixed results.A survey conducted by the students of Policy Research Lab (PRL) of O P Jindal Global University also found that 44% of the respondents mentioned better service delivery as the topmost issue for them in choosing the next government. Rather than doling out freebies, they would want to see an overall improvement of the basic amenities […]","og_url":"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/","og_site_name":"91探花","article_published_time":"2024-07-17T06:58:09+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-07-17T07:17:09+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":560,"url":"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Is-the-Modi-Magic-on-the-Wane.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Vinay","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Vinay","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/","url":"https:\/\/jgu.edu.in\/jsgp\/jindal-policy-research-lab\/is-the-modi-magic-on-the-wane\/","name":"Is the Modi Magic on the Wane? | 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